Is Jesus for Real?

Can Mathematics Help Us Discover Whether Jesus Really Is the Messiah?

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What if someone could tell you where you would be born hundreds of years before your birth? What if they could describe how you would be treated, how you would die, and even details surrounding your burial?

Would you dismiss it as coincidence? Or would you want to know how they could possibly have known?

That is the remarkable question surrounding Jesus of Nazareth.

Few historians dispute that Jesus lived. But the question we want to investigate is much bigger: Was Jesus really who He claimed to be? Was He the promised Messiah, the Son of God?

Centuries before Jesus was born, the Old Testament contained passages that Christians believe pointed forward to His life and mission. Traditionally, more than 300 prophecies and prophetic connections have been associated with Jesus.

But what would happen if we selected just eight of them and attempted to calculate the probability that one person could fulfill them all by chance?

That is exactly what mathematics and astronomy professor Peter W. Stoner set out to investigate.

Eight Remarkable Prophecies

In his book Science Speaks, Stoner examined these eight Old Testament passages and their fulfillment in the life of Jesus.

1. He would be born in Bethlehem. (Micah 5:2; Matthew 2:1)

2. A messenger would prepare the way before Him. (Malachi 3:1; Matthew 11:10)

3. He would enter Jerusalem riding on a donkey's colt. (Zechariah 9:9; Matthew 21:1–9)

4. He would be wounded in His hands in connection with betrayal by a friend. (Zechariah 13:6; Matthew 26:47–50; John 20:25–27)

5. He would be betrayed for thirty pieces of silver. (Zechariah 11:12; Matthew 26:14–15)

6. The thirty pieces of silver would be thrown into the house of the Lord and go to the potter. (Zechariah 11:13; Matthew 27:3–10)

7. He would remain silent before His accusers. (Isaiah 53:7; Matthew 27:12–14)

8. His hands and feet would be pierced. (Psalm 22:16; John 20:25–27)

Some of these events involved decisions Jesus made. Others depended on the actions of people around Him, including those who opposed Him. And some, such as His birthplace, were entirely beyond His human control.

Stoner and his students examined each prophecy and assigned an estimated probability of its fulfillment. They attempted to make their estimates conservative, allowing generously for the possibility of coincidence.

What follows assumes that Stoner's estimates, interpretations, and method of combining probabilities are correct. His calculations are not universally accepted as mathematical proof, but they provide a fascinating illustration of the argument he was making.

And the numbers are astonishing. Even if they are not perfectly correct, they are beyond comprehension.

Imagine Covering Texas with Silver Dollars

For just eight prophecies, Stoner calculated an estimated probability of one chance in 100,000,000,000,000,000—or one in (10^{17})—that any person throughout the period he considered would fulfill them all by chance.

How large is that number?

Imagine covering the entire state of Texas with silver dollars two feet deep (approximately 61 centimeters). Every city, every field, every road—covered with coins.

Now imagine marking just one silver dollar and mixing it somewhere among all the others.

Next, blindfold a man, allow him to travel anywhere across Texas, and tell him he must pick up that one marked coin on his very first attempt.

What chance would he have?

According to Stoner, that illustrates the odds he calculated for one person fulfilling just eight selected prophecies by chance.

And Professor Stoner wasn't finished.

What If We Considered Sixteen Prophecies?

Stoner extended his calculation to sixteen prophecies. This time, his estimated probability became one in (10^{45}).

To illustrate that number, he imagined taking (10^{45}) silver dollars and pressing them together into one enormous, solid sphere.

Place the center of that sphere where our Sun is. Its outer edge would extend roughly thirty times the distance between the Earth and the Sun—approximately the distance of Neptune's orbit.

Imagine that immense sphere, filled completely with silver dollars. Somewhere inside it is one marked coin.

Now send a blindfolded person into that sphere and ask him to find the marked coin on the first attempt.

What chance would he have?

That was Stoner's illustration for sixteen prophecies.

But he decided to go further.

Forty-Eight Prophecies—and an Unimaginable Number

When Stoner extended his calculation to forty-eight prophecies, his estimated probability became one in (10^{157}).

That is a 1 followed by 157 zeros.

Silver dollars were now far too large for his illustration. He needed something much smaller.

So he chose electrons.

Stoner described how incredibly small electrons are and imagined gathering (10^{157}) of them into one enormous collection.

To help readers picture that quantity, he used the estimated size of the universe as understood in his day.

Imagine a sphere extending six billion light-years in every direction, completely filled with electrons.

Would that use up all (10^{157}) electrons?

Not even close.

According to Stoner's calculations, you could fill approximately 60,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 such universe-sized spheres with electrons.

That is 60 octillion enormous spheres, each extending six billion light-years in every direction.

Keep in mind that this was Stoner's hypothetical illustration, based on the astronomical estimates and physical assumptions used in his book. It is not a claim that this many universes actually exist.

Now imagine marking just one electron among that unimaginable collection.

Mix it thoroughly among all the others, blindfold a man, and ask him to find that one marked electron on his very first attempt.

What chance would he have?

This was the illustration that led Stoner to his remarkable conclusion.

Peter Stoner's Remarkable Conclusion

"To the extent, then, that we know this blindfolded man cannot pick out the marked electron, we know that the Bible is inspired. This is not merely evidence. It is proof of the Bible's inspiration by God--proof so definite that the universe is not large enough to hold the evidence."

— Professor Peter W. Stoner, Science Speaks

Stoner also wrote:

"Any man who rejects Christ as the Son of God is rejecting a fact proved perhaps more absolutely than any other fact in the world."

Those are extraordinary statements.

Of course, Stoner's conclusions depend on the accuracy of his estimated probabilities, his understanding of the prophecies, and the assumptions behind his calculations. Not everyone agrees with those assumptions, so his results should be understood as a proposed mathematical argument rather than an established proof.

But the question that prompted his investigation remains fascinating.

How do we explain the remarkable connections between ancient biblical writings and the life of Jesus?

And perhaps there is an even more important question.

If Jesus really is the promised Messiah, what does that tell us about His love for us—and how long He has been planning to rescue us?

Long before Jesus was born in Bethlehem, God was already telling humanity that He had not abandoned us.

The story of Jesus did not begin in a manger. And the evidence for who He is deserves more than a passing glance.

Read Peter Stoner's The Christ of Prophecy

Over 300 of the prophecies pointing to Jesus:

      What does this tell you about God and His love?      Can you trust Him more now?